I would be happy to answer this. My father is a manager for Sunoco. He told me that they have discovered more reserves in North & South Dakota with a total output that dwarfs the Middle East. Oil refining should easily last another century in America. We have oil out the Wazoo. If not here, then we can turn to the tar sands in Alberta. The only reason that we are in the position we are is because of the federal government.
American refineries will last because China and India's economies are in terrible shape. They have real estate bubbles waiting to burst. In fact Adam Yamaguchi from Current TV went over to China to see conditions for himself. He reported that much of their manufacturing section is crippled up. The Chinese have entire towns that are as idle and decrepit as Detroit.
The refining capacity should last for the foreseeable future. What will more than likely happen is that the Obama administration will tax and fine our oil industry into ruin. He will bring it to a standstill and the capacity will go nowhere. We will have $10/ gallon gasoline, according to Eric Ballmer from Fox News. It depends on which way the political winds blow.